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发布时间:2012-4-24 来源:本站原创  





Title: Quantity versus Price rule: A New Keynesian Perspective On Chinese Monetary Policy

  We develop a small-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model with sticky wage and sticky price to evaluate the two monetary policy rules: the extended Macullum rule(quantity rule) and the extended Taylor rule(price rule) for China. The model incorporates various other features such as habit formation, costs of adjustment of investment, variable capital utilization and partial indexation. We also introduce various structural shocks into the model including “demand” shocks, “supply” shocks “cost-push” shocks and monetary policy shocks. We estimate the DSGE model with Bayesian techniques for quantity rule and price rule separately using six key macroeconomic variables each: GDP, Consumption, Investment, Wage, CPI and M2(for quantity rule) and Interest rate(for price rule). The empirical results seems to indicate that the combination of price and quantity instrument is more effective than only one instrument is used. The findings are consistent with the PBoC's efforts of liberalizing interest rate and making an active and frequent use of a combination of both price and quantity instrument especially in recent years. Furthermore, we found considerable price and wage stickiness in the economy which well fit the facts we observed.

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